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Predicting the Actual Winning Rate Based on Test Results (Graph)

Author: otakeExecutions: 1425
TOP/Shared Formulas (Math)/Statistics & Probability

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I’ve tried the gacha so many times, but I never win anything... How many are actually in there?
Please use this when you find yourself thinking that.
Looking at the graph, I think there’s a single peak. The higher the point on the graph, the more likely it is that it represents the actual winning rate.
The three on the right must not be changed.
Number of trials (number of times the lottery was drawn)
Times
Number of wins (number of times the lottery was won)
Times
((x/100)^b)(((100-x)/100)^(a-b))combination(a,b) × (1/(((b/a)^b)(((a-b)/a)^(a-b))combination(a,b)))
The part to the right of the × is to align the graph’s vertex at 1.

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