Mario Kart Tour: Coin Fever Expected Value + Bonus
Author: aikoandmayaExecutions: 5820
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This is a tool that estimates how much your score will increase when you trigger Coin Fever in Mario Kart Tour.
◆Assumptions for Calculating Coin Fever Expected Value
・12 Fever Actions
・20 coins
・Coin Fever is fully completed without reaching the Fever Goal
・Final ranking is 1st
A broken combo has little effect on the expected value.
(If you tend to make the same mistakes when not in Fever mode, the result is the same; however, if you tend to break combos when not in Fever mode but can maintain them once in Fever mode, the expected value actually increases.
However, a combo break immediately before or after a Fever is likely to result in a loss and may prevent you from achieving results on par with the expected value. The same applies if your rapid-fire taps are slow to register or not pressed firmly enough.
Scores below the goal points shown in the results are considered bonus points. By entering the “Driver’s Rank” and “Total Number of Actions (for bonus calculation),” you can calculate the bonus points displayed upon reaching the goal or the loss incurred if you fail to take first place. (The display does not account for the maximum cap; it shows the actual bonus points earned.)
・12 Fever Actions
・20 coins
・Coin Fever is fully completed without reaching the Fever Goal
・Final ranking is 1st
A broken combo has little effect on the expected value.
(If you tend to make the same mistakes when not in Fever mode, the result is the same; however, if you tend to break combos when not in Fever mode but can maintain them once in Fever mode, the expected value actually increases.
However, a combo break immediately before or after a Fever is likely to result in a loss and may prevent you from achieving results on par with the expected value. The same applies if your rapid-fire taps are slow to register or not pressed firmly enough.
Scores below the goal points shown in the results are considered bonus points. By entering the “Driver’s Rank” and “Total Number of Actions (for bonus calculation),” you can calculate the bonus points displayed upon reaching the goal or the loss incurred if you fail to take first place. (The display does not account for the maximum cap; it shows the actual bonus points earned.)
| Coin Fever Expected Value: 1 play + | p2 times + p3 times + p |
| Coin Box Addition | p |
| Fever Probability + | % |
| Action Point Multiplier × | Times(※Level adjustment Times× *Appropriateness correction* times) |
| Point Boost per Action + | pCombo Time + % |
| Goal Points (Raw Score) | p |
| 1st Place Goal | p*Loss: 2nd place p3rd place p4th place p |
[Additional Notes on Settings]
◆Coin Decay Value
Coin Fever does not appear unless you rank 1st or 2nd, but if you fail to trigger Fever at these ranks, single coins typically appear in 1–2 of the 3 slots. Therefore, when you trigger Coin Fever, the score equivalent to the single coins that would have appeared during a miss is effectively canceled out.
Therefore, by setting the average number of coins that appear on a miss as the “Coin Decay Value,” you can calculate a more accurate expected value.
Note that while a single coin item is worth 2 coins, the setting allows for odd numbers to be used as the average value.
◆Mini Turbo Decay Value
Since Mini Turbo scores are not added during Fever mode, the “Mini Turbo Decay Value” is set to represent the number of Mini Turbo uses that would have accumulated if Fever mode had not been active.
However, while being airborne does not affect the number of Mini Turbo uses, it can make it easier to lose Glide Keep opportunities; furthermore, the ease of compensating for this—such as activating Super Mini Turbo or Ultra Mini Turbo immediately after Fever ends—varies depending on where Fever occurs, so conditions are never exactly the same. Therefore, this setting should be treated merely as a rough guideline.
If you want to estimate the expected value conservatively—for example, because acceleration makes it harder to collect coins on the course—it’s best to set the decay value higher.
◆ Machine Skills and Glider Skills
To calculate a more accurate expected value, you can configure whether skills that affect Fever mode are enabled or not. However, since the bonus values for the Machine’s “Mini Turbo Plus” and the Glider’s “Coin Plus” are both negligible—and there’s no difference based on character suitability—they aren’t particularly important. Furthermore, since the expected value itself is prone to fluctuation, you don’t need to change these settings if you find it too much trouble.
Note that as of the Pirates Tour, there are no Normal Gliders with the Coin Plus skill; however, if you were to set it, since UR units would gain +3 points and R units +2 points, the calculation is based on +1 point.
◆ Total Actions Without Fever
The Point Boost reaches its maximum value when the total number of actions reaches 200; it will not increase further even if the count exceeds 200.
On courses where the number of actions tends to be high to begin with, the total number of actions is likely to exceed 200 if a Coin Fever occurs. Since the correct expected value cannot be calculated without taking this into account, entering an estimate of the total number of actions when completing the course without a Fever allows for a more accurate expected value.
However, on courses where the number of actions doesn’t tend to be particularly high, leaving this value at “0” will not affect the expected value calculation, so if you’re unsure, you can leave it as is.
For characters associated with Coin Boxes, please enter the total number of actions when you haven’t drawn a single Coin Box.
◆ Coin Box Adjustment
Since even a single coin box significantly affects the number of actions, please enter the “total number of coins collected from coin boxes over the entire race,” taking into account the number of coin boxes drawn that would be considered sufficient for aiming for a high score. This value will be added directly to the total number of actions without Fever to calculate the expected value.
While it’s possible to collect more than 20 coins from a single coin box in some cases, it’s usually around 10 coins. Therefore, assuming two coin boxes appear, a setting of around 20–25 is recommended. (It’s also a good idea to pay close attention to how much the coin count display in the lower-left corner increases when you use a coin box.)
Incidentally, the calculated score will also include the bonus from coin boxes, so you can use this feature to compare, for example, “the custom with the highest boost” against “a coin box character with a slightly lower boost” when evaluating custom setups.
Additionally, if you’re fine-tuning your score based on the premise of using a boomerang character to completely sweep up all the coins scattered by the coin box, you can use this tool alternatively by entering the number of coins you expect to seize.
◆ Bonus Features, etc.
The bottom row of the input form contains bonus features; if you’re only looking to calculate the expected value of Coin Fever, you can leave it at the default settings.
Regarding character suitability, since a character must be “Optimal” (★★★) to trigger a Coin Fever, this setting is meaningless for calculating the expected value of Coin Fever. However, we’ve intentionally made it configurable so that you can use this tool to calculate point boost values.Currently, there is absolutely no difference between ★★ and ★, so this is also meaningless. Furthermore, the character rarity setting is intended solely to display the added Fever probability, so as long as the base points are correct, it has no effect on the expected value calculation.
◆Coin Decay Value
Coin Fever does not appear unless you rank 1st or 2nd, but if you fail to trigger Fever at these ranks, single coins typically appear in 1–2 of the 3 slots. Therefore, when you trigger Coin Fever, the score equivalent to the single coins that would have appeared during a miss is effectively canceled out.
Therefore, by setting the average number of coins that appear on a miss as the “Coin Decay Value,” you can calculate a more accurate expected value.
Note that while a single coin item is worth 2 coins, the setting allows for odd numbers to be used as the average value.
◆Mini Turbo Decay Value
Since Mini Turbo scores are not added during Fever mode, the “Mini Turbo Decay Value” is set to represent the number of Mini Turbo uses that would have accumulated if Fever mode had not been active.
However, while being airborne does not affect the number of Mini Turbo uses, it can make it easier to lose Glide Keep opportunities; furthermore, the ease of compensating for this—such as activating Super Mini Turbo or Ultra Mini Turbo immediately after Fever ends—varies depending on where Fever occurs, so conditions are never exactly the same. Therefore, this setting should be treated merely as a rough guideline.
If you want to estimate the expected value conservatively—for example, because acceleration makes it harder to collect coins on the course—it’s best to set the decay value higher.
◆ Machine Skills and Glider Skills
To calculate a more accurate expected value, you can configure whether skills that affect Fever mode are enabled or not. However, since the bonus values for the Machine’s “Mini Turbo Plus” and the Glider’s “Coin Plus” are both negligible—and there’s no difference based on character suitability—they aren’t particularly important. Furthermore, since the expected value itself is prone to fluctuation, you don’t need to change these settings if you find it too much trouble.
Note that as of the Pirates Tour, there are no Normal Gliders with the Coin Plus skill; however, if you were to set it, since UR units would gain +3 points and R units +2 points, the calculation is based on +1 point.
◆ Total Actions Without Fever
The Point Boost reaches its maximum value when the total number of actions reaches 200; it will not increase further even if the count exceeds 200.
On courses where the number of actions tends to be high to begin with, the total number of actions is likely to exceed 200 if a Coin Fever occurs. Since the correct expected value cannot be calculated without taking this into account, entering an estimate of the total number of actions when completing the course without a Fever allows for a more accurate expected value.
However, on courses where the number of actions doesn’t tend to be particularly high, leaving this value at “0” will not affect the expected value calculation, so if you’re unsure, you can leave it as is.
For characters associated with Coin Boxes, please enter the total number of actions when you haven’t drawn a single Coin Box.
◆ Coin Box Adjustment
Since even a single coin box significantly affects the number of actions, please enter the “total number of coins collected from coin boxes over the entire race,” taking into account the number of coin boxes drawn that would be considered sufficient for aiming for a high score. This value will be added directly to the total number of actions without Fever to calculate the expected value.
While it’s possible to collect more than 20 coins from a single coin box in some cases, it’s usually around 10 coins. Therefore, assuming two coin boxes appear, a setting of around 20–25 is recommended. (It’s also a good idea to pay close attention to how much the coin count display in the lower-left corner increases when you use a coin box.)
Incidentally, the calculated score will also include the bonus from coin boxes, so you can use this feature to compare, for example, “the custom with the highest boost” against “a coin box character with a slightly lower boost” when evaluating custom setups.
Additionally, if you’re fine-tuning your score based on the premise of using a boomerang character to completely sweep up all the coins scattered by the coin box, you can use this tool alternatively by entering the number of coins you expect to seize.
◆ Bonus Features, etc.
The bottom row of the input form contains bonus features; if you’re only looking to calculate the expected value of Coin Fever, you can leave it at the default settings.
Regarding character suitability, since a character must be “Optimal” (★★★) to trigger a Coin Fever, this setting is meaningless for calculating the expected value of Coin Fever. However, we’ve intentionally made it configurable so that you can use this tool to calculate point boost values.Currently, there is absolutely no difference between ★★ and ★, so this is also meaningless. Furthermore, the character rarity setting is intended solely to display the added Fever probability, so as long as the base points are correct, it has no effect on the expected value calculation.
No customer feedback for this calculation yet.